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| HUPAC Roundup |
The big shake up in the 2016 presidential race this week was Senator Ted Cruz’s (TX) win in the Wisconsin primary over businessman Donald Trump. Cruz took 48% of the vote compared to Trump's 35%. Cruz's Wisconsin win increases the likelihood that Trump will fail to reach the number of delegates needed to secure the nomination. Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight.com fame, has run the numbers and believes Trump needs to hit at least 40% in polling in each state going forward to stand a chance of securing the needed delegates; a tall order considering his track record so far in the primaries. Trump has won 18 out of the 30 states who have held primaries, but has only gotten over 40% of the vote in 10 of those 18.
It seems as though the winnowing of the field to only three candidates has not increased his share of voters, instead voters of the other candidates are going towards Cruz or Governor John Kasich (OH). Another issue for Trump is that late deciders have not been helping Trump. His polling averages have actually been on the nose as he has not over performed or underperformed the polls in each state. Trump has a solid 35-40% of the Republican vote depending on the state and does not seem able to gain much more than that except for primaries in the Northeast where he has a more natural base being from the region. Besides the New York primary in a little less than two weeks, there is no state that seems to be a lock for Trump. The Never Trump movement might be picking up steam as Cruz over performed the polls in Wisconsin by 10 points and Kasich underperformed by 5 points, meaning voters may be voting tactically to deny Trump the nomination. One thing seems certain, this race will be going down to the wire.
Did you know...
...HUPAC is a bipartisan political action committee. We support Republicans, Democrats and Independents alike. It is not the party affiliation we look at, but whether they are supporters of agents and brokers. The “R” or “D” in front of their name does not always tell the full story. There are Republicans who would like to dismantle the employer-based system for health insurance and put a lot of agents and brokers out of work, and there are Democrats who support a single-payer system that would also put agents and brokers out of work. Instead we look at members of Congress and candidates who have expressed their support for private sector solutions in healthcare and co-sponsored legislation that is supportive of our legislative agenda. |
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